California Republicans Hold Firm in Orange County Despite National Democratic Surge
While Democrats gain control of the state legislature, three Inland Empire seats flip and Orange County races remain too close to call.
By Thiago Kovalenko ·
The 2026 midterm elections produced a historic shift in national power, yet the impact on California’s state legislature was uneven, with Democrats securing a majority while Republicans retained key seats in the Inland Empire and Orange County.
Christian Grose, a political science professor at USC, noted that the national wave hit California with less force than the rest of the country. He described the situation as a high tide that washed over some districts but failed to erode others. According to Paul Mitchell, a Democratic consultant, Democrats are projected to hold 64 of 80 Assembly seats and 32 Senate seats, leaving Republicans with 11 Assembly seats and five Senate seats.
Three Republican-held Assembly seats in the Inland Empire appear poised to flip to the Democrats. In District 36, Democrat Ida Obeso-Martinez leads incumbent Jeff Gonzalez by 14,735 votes. In District 47, Democrat Leila Namvar leads Greg Wallis by over 15,600 votes. In District 58, Democrat Clarissa Cervantes leads Leticia Castillo by more than 15,500 votes. These results align with the national trend of increased turnout among Democrats and independents, while Republican turnout lagged behind presidential year levels.
Orange County presented a different picture, with several races remaining too close to call. In the 36th Senate District, Democrat Chris Duncan leads Republican Tony Strickland by 4,072 votes, a margin Grose finds surprising given the district’s previous Republican lean. In Assembly District 72, Republican Gracey Van Der Mark holds a 2,214 vote lead over Democrat Chris Kluwe. Jon Gould, dean of the UC Irvine School of Social Ecology, attributed these tight margins to the county’s purple electorate, where Democrats won statewide races with just over 53% of the vote by appealing to independents and some moderate Republicans.
The data suggests that the national blue wave did not uniformly replace party loyalty in California. Gould explained that the losses for Republican candidates came primarily from independents and lightly attached voters rather than their core base. This dynamic allowed incumbents in areas with strong MAGA support, such as Huntington Beach, to remain competitive despite the favorable national environment for Democrats.
As of Friday evening, two other Orange County Assembly races remained within a few hundred votes. In District 70, Democrat Paul Swift leads Republican Tri Ta by 244 votes. In District 74, spanning Orange and San Diego counties, Republican Laurie Davies leads Democrat Sergio Farias by 1,659 votes. County election officials continued to tally remaining ballots, with final results expected to clarify the exact composition of the new state legislature.
The election results mark a pendulum swing comparable to major shifts in the 1930s and 1970s, according to Grose. The combination of higher Democratic turnout and lower Republican participation drove the changes in the state legislature. While Democrats gained ground nationally, the resilience of certain Republican incumbents in Southern California demonstrated that local voter dynamics can moderate the effects of broad national trends.
