Record Exodus: Vote Could Accelerate Israel Departures
New data shows a historic rise in emigrants, and economists warn that next week's election may deepen the trend.
By Thiago Kovalenko ·
A national vote scheduled for next week may determine whether a historic wave of departures from Israel accelerates or stabilizes. This conclusion comes as new research confirms that the country has seen its highest rate of emigration in recorded history over the last three years.
The study, published in February by researchers at the Coller School of Management at Tel Aviv University, analyzed data from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The findings indicate that approximately 99,000 citizens left the country between January 2023 and December 2024. The researchers defined these individuals as those who were absent for at least three consecutive months and spent more than 270 days abroad during their first year away. Preliminary figures suggest this pattern persisted through 2025.
Itai Ater, a professor at the university, attributes the trend to a period of intense instability. He notes that the nation, with a population of roughly 10 million, has endured war, economic doubt, and a prolonged legal battle involving the prime minister. Netanyahu’s corruption trial, which began in 2020, remains unresolved. Ater observes that many residents are questioning whether they want to raise children in such an environment, a sentiment he personally understands.
The context for this exodus began in 2023 with the Hamas attack on southern Israel. That event resulted in the death of roughly 1,200 people and the capture of 250 hostages. Israel responded with a military campaign in the Gaza Strip that caused significant destruction. Although a fragile ceasefire took effect in October 2025, the country still controls about 60 percent of the territory and maintains a regular military presence there.
The upcoming election introduces further uncertainty into this equation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has served as the longest serving leader in the country's history, is seeking another term. Current polls indicate his far-right bloc will likely fail to secure the 61 Knesset seats required for a governing majority. A competing bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar party is positioned to win the most seats but is also expected to fall short of a standalone majority. Since coalitions are typically necessary to form a government, the post-vote negotiations often become the decisive phase, a process in which Netanyahu has historically been adept.
Ater warns that if the political status quo remains unchanged, the number of departures could spike significantly. He predicts that emigration statistics will rise dramatically in the absence of political change. On the ground, the impact is personal. Avigail Ben-Porat, a 50-year-old single mother living in Kiryat Shmona near the Lebanese border, dreams of leaving but lacks the financial resources to do so. She continues to hear rocket fire regularly and notes that many of her friends have relocated to destinations such as Portugal, Canada, Thailand, and India.
Researchers are particularly concerned about the demographic composition of those leaving. The study highlights a sharp increase in the departure of highly skilled workers, including doctors, PhD holders, and engineers. Between 2023 and 2024, the net loss of engineers reached 2,360, while 509 doctors left the country. Ater emphasizes that the economy relies heavily on this human capital, particularly in the tech sector, academia, and healthcare systems.
Businesses are also reconsidering their presence in the region. Liam Schwartz, who leads the corporate immigration department at the Tel Aviv law firm Goldfarb, Gross, Seligman, reports that some companies face pressure from non-Israeli shareholders. These investors are concerned about the long-term viability of operating from Israel and are increasingly open to moving portions of their workforce to North America or Europe. Schwartz traces much of this discontent to January 2023, when the government proposed judicial reforms that would have curtailed the power of the Supreme Court. He states that many feel the government is failing to uphold its side of the social contract.
Both experts view the October vote as a potential turning point. Schwartz describes it as a watershed moment for the future of emigration. Ater frames the stakes as a strategic risk to Israel’s identity as a liberal democracy, noting that the implications extend to the Middle East and the wider world.
