Satellite Data Shows 9,000 Hectares of Poppies Emerging in Balochistan

Farmers in Pakistan's Balochistan province and Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan province are planting poppies on a scale not previously recorded in the region. Satellite imagery analyzed by the British firm Alcis identified more than 9,000 hectares of poppy cultivation in Balochistan alone. This expansion coincides with a sharp decline in opium output in Afghanistan, where the Taliban imposed a ban on illicit narcotics in 2022.

David Mansfield, a UK-based expert on Afghanistan's illicit drugs industry, stated that the Taliban ban and instability in the tri-border area created conditions for widespread cultivation in neighboring countries. He described the remote borderlands of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran as becoming a global center for opium production. Mansfield noted that the shift is driven by Afghan farmers from Kandahar and Helmand provinces who cross the border to lease land.

These Afghan growers bring capital and technical expertise to the region. According to Lala Jan Kakar, a resident of Killa Abdullah district, these farmers invest millions of Pakistani rupees in solar-powered wells and share profits with local landowners. Poppies can be harvested twice a year, and many farmers doubled their cultivated land in 2026. Mansfield characterized this expansion as a stark indication that higher cultivation levels should be expected in 2027.

In Balochistan, the new crops are concentrated primarily in the districts of Loralai and Killa Abdullah. Abdul Qahar Wadan, a former member of the National Assembly from Killa Abdullah, alleged that cultivation is rampant and backed by senior military officials and pro-government power brokers who take commissions. Monawar Hussain, the district's chief administrative officer, rejected this claim, asserting that cultivation declined following an eradication campaign last year. However, Alcis imagery from 2026 shows no clear evidence of such eradication.

Local farmers describe a shift from traditional agriculture to poppy monoculture due to economic pressure. One anonymous farmer in Killa Abdullah said growers pay bribes to local authorities through influential intermediaries. He alleged that when media attention increases, growers sometimes plant poppies on barren land so officials can destroy the crop and publicize the effort. Kakar noted that insecurity, drought, and flash floods have devastated traditional fruit farming, making poppies a more reliable source of income.

A similar pattern has emerged in Iran, where Afghan farmers work as tenants and sharecroppers. While cultivation has been reported in provinces including Razavi Khorasan, Kermanshah, Lorestan, and Fars, Sistan-Baluchistan remains the main producing region. Satellite imagery from 2026 shows extensive poppy fields there, some using drip irrigation. This costly investment suggests that growers who planted in late 2025 expected little risk of eradication by Iranian authorities.

Iranian authorities have been unable or unwilling to destroy the 2026 crop, partly due to their preoccupation with the war against the United States and Israel since late February. Experts expect cultivation to rise further in 2027 as the Iranian economy faces pressure and separatist insurgency in the province intensifies. Mansfield noted that unlike in Afghanistan, farmers in Pakistan and Iran are increasingly devoting large plots entirely to poppy, moving from mixed farming to large-scale monoculture.

Opium cultivation is also rebounding inside Afghanistan despite the ban. Production is concentrated in northeastern Badakhshan Province, which accounts for around half of national output, and several southwestern provinces. Mansfield reported that southwestern cultivation almost doubled between 2025 and 2026. Farmers in these areas have protested and defied the ban, driven by drought, debt, and economic hardship. Cultivation remains concealed within wheat fields and behind compound walls.

The Taliban has issued a directive barring home searches for poppy or opium without a court order, a move Mansfield called a concession to avoid provoking unrest. He warned that growing numbers of farmers in the southwest may interpret this as a signal that authorities will tolerate cultivation beyond walled compounds. This dynamic creates a risk of a dramatic rise in opium production in 2027. Armed groups in the region are competing for tax revenues from the drugs trade, people smuggling, and the trade in fuel and minerals.