Citrinowicz: Third U.S.-Iran War Phase Targets Gulf Energy After Vote
A former Israeli intelligence chief predicts renewed strikes on subsea cables and oil sites following the November 3 midterms, as death tolls surpass 7,000.
By Tyler Khalil ·
Former Israeli intelligence chief Danny Citrinowicz predicts the United States and Israel will resume military operations against Iran immediately after the November 3 midterm elections. He argues a third round of conflict will target Gulf energy infrastructure and subsea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz. Citrinowicz, who serves with the Institute for National Security Studies, described a renewed war as "almost inevitable." He noted that President Donald Trump faces "only bad and worse options" in the region.
Two previous wars have occurred over the past 18 months under the Trump-Netanyahu administration. The first began in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear sites and ended after 12 days. Fighting returned in February following a major U.S. military buildup. That second phase opened with Israeli strikes on senior Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Citrinowicz expects the next phase to hit civilian infrastructure and communications lines. He also raised the possibility of limited Iranian ground attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain. Iran could deploy part of its large land army to strike U.S. bases and damage the American economy. This strategy aims to inflict maximum economic cost on Washington.
The conflict remains active despite a lack of direct strikes on bases since the summer truce collapsed. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports while Iran targets commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. These actions have raised global energy costs. On Thursday, Trump accused Iran of inflating oil prices before the midterms on Truth Social. He claimed Iran was "making up fake hits, mines and everything else."
Analysts from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agree with this assessment. They state vessel attacks are intended to pressure the U.S. into meeting Iranian demands. Those demands include sanctions relief, reparations, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks attempting to restart talks without success.
Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that the war has pushed Iran to double down on revolutionary ideology. She expects retaliation from proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah. These groups could target soft economic sites such as airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that Trump lacks a clear goal. He stated no military "knockout punch" will force Iran to capitulate.
The human toll is substantial. Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran. Lebanese media report over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members have been killed, mostly in Gulf strikes. More than 70 Israelis have also died. Casualties have been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen.
The Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, according to the New York Times and other U.S. outlets. It is unknown if Trump will approve it. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of "finishing the job" against the Iranian regime. He faces a close election in the coming days. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power through an emergency unity government.
Citrinowicz warned that political calculation could combine with an inflated Iranian threat to produce an unnecessary attack. Sadjadpour argued diplomacy has not died but has narrowed due to Trump's maximalist aims. Iran would compromise only under existential economic pressure and a clear diplomatic exit. "If you're asking them to change their identity, that's not going to succeed," Sadjadpour said.
