Israeli Election: Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot Holds a Clear Path to Power

Arab-led parties won 19 seats in the Israeli Knesset, a historic result that leaves both major political blocs without a clear majority. The final count announced Friday shows that opposition parties hold more seats than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition, yet neither side can easily reach the 61 votes required to govern in the 120-member parliament.

Netanyahu’s Likud party secured the most votes with 27 seats. However, his bloc of right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox parties lost the pre-election majority, totaling 53 seats. Gadi Eisenkot, the center-right former military chief of staff, leads an opposition bloc that won 48 seats. Eisenkot cannot form a government without the support of the Arab parties, a partnership his allies largely rejected during the campaign.

In the coming days, President Isaac Herzog will consult with all elected party leaders. Each party will recommend a candidate for the role of prime minister. The president is not bound to choose the leader of the largest party; instead, he selects the candidate most likely to assemble a coalition. That candidate receives 28 days to secure 61 votes, with a possible 14-day extension. If the effort fails, the president may task another candidate with forming a government.

Eisenkot appears more likely to receive the initial mandate from party leaders than Netanyahu. However, forming a coalition remains difficult. If Eisenkot allies with the 19 Arab-led parties, the combined group would command more than 67 seats. Yet Eisenkot has stated that the Arab parties' positions on Hamas and the war in Gaza prevent him from governing with them. Netanyahu faces a similar deficit, as his traditional partners lack the seats to return him to power.

Several paths are under consideration. One option is a unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, a structure some reports suggest President Donald Trump may favor. Such a government would likely include moderate center and right parties. However, Eisenkot has pledged not to serve in a government led by Netanyahu, and the two would need to resolve questions about leadership rotation.

Another possibility is an Eisenkot government supported by Arab parties from outside the coalition. This arrangement would provide a comfortable majority but contradicts campaign promises. A third option is a new election, which President Herzog urges leaders to avoid after a vote that drew the highest turnout in decades. Netanyahu may view a repeat election favorably, anticipating a potential drop in Arab and overseas liberal turnout. A fourth path involves defections, though Netanyahu would need roughly eight defectors and Eisenkot would need about 13 if he excludes Arab parties.

While negotiations proceed, the opposition may use its parliamentary strength to advance legislation. Eisenkot’s bloc is considering replacing the Knesset speaker and establishing a state commission of inquiry into the events preceding the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas. They also aim to reverse laws that critics say weakened judicial independence. A renewed war with Iran could disrupt these legislative moves and increase pressure on Eisenkot to join an emergency unity government, a dynamic Netanyahu may seek to exploit.