Democrats lead in redrawn Texas 15th district
Polls show a five-point Democratic lead in the Texas 15th district.
By Tyler Khalil ·
The Texas 15th district, redrawn to give Republicans an 18-point majority, now shows a five-point Democratic lead in current polling. This shift is part of a broader trend as Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley, who helped deliver Donald Trump an unusually strong showing in 2024, are showing signs of drifting back toward Democrats ahead of the midterms. Recent polling suggests much of that support has ebbed, with a majority of Hispanic voters in Texas disapproving of the president and favoring Democrats over Republicans by a significant margin.
Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, expects a tough race but credits the administration with securing the border. Most people accept deporting criminals, he said, but deporting productive, law-abiding people is where the problem begins. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman who leads the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Trump three times but plans to vote Democrat in November. He said voters were not told how far the administration would go, and he described an acquaintance whose crew of 35 daily workers had shrunk so much that he would be lucky to get four to six to show up.
The cost of living ranks at the top of many voters' concerns. At a local avocado festival, Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar blamed the president for rising prices. 'He is in control of our destiny with all that, and right now he's not doing a very good job,' Baldwin said. Republican campaigners acknowledge they are on the back foot. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga said the midterms are 'purely a game of turnout.' Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the neighbouring Democratic-held 28th district, credited Trump with 'breaking through barriers' but said the 'national political headwinds are real.'
If the polls are right, and that is not guaranteed, even a modest swing back to Democrats could reshape races well beyond Texas. In the state itself, it could be enough to put a US Senate seat in play, one Democrats have not won in more than 30 years.
