Poll Shows 45% Back 5% California Billionaire Tax Ahead of November Vote

California voters will decide next month whether to tax the net worth of the state's wealthiest residents, with a September poll showing 45% of likely voters in favor, 42% opposed and 13% undecided. Proposition 40 needs a simple majority to pass and would impose a one-time 5% levy on billionaires living in the state, a group numbering just over 200 people that includes Oprah Winfrey, Mark Zuckerberg, Kim Kardashian and George Lucas.

The campaign behind the measure frames it as a stopgap for the state's health infrastructure. Suzanne Jimenez of Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, which helped lead the effort, calls it a "short-term solution" and says, "If we do nothing, we're going to see a collapse of our healthcare system, while we figure out a longer-term solution to fund our healthcare." Supporters estimate the levy would bring in $100 billion (£75 billion), money intended to offset reductions in federal healthcare funding connected to President Donald Trump's tax and spending legislation.

California generates more economic output than any other US state, a figure that surpasses the GDP of India or the UK, but it also records the highest share of homeless residents in the nation and one of its widest gaps in wealth. Francesco Trebbi, who teaches public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, describes the proposal as the first tax of its kind aimed at an extreme percentile of the wealth distribution.

Governor Gavin Newsom, whose term is ending, stands among the measure's opponents. He argues the tax could push wealthy residents, and the income tax revenue they carry, out of the state. Google cofounder Sergey Brin has put more than $100 million into a political organization bankrolling ballot measures that could block it, the Los Angeles Times reports.

The measure would reach backward in time, applying to anyone holding at least $1 billion who lived in California on 1 January 2026. At least six billionaires have reportedly departed, among them Google cofounders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, venture capitalist Peter Thiel, former Uber boss Travis Kalanick and Hankey Group founder Don Hankey. Hankey told Forbes he relocated to Nevada because of the proposal, saying it left him feeling he was not "wanted" despite the jobs his companies created. Meta chief Mark Zuckerberg told the company's board last month that he was weighing a move of his primary residence away from California; Meta agreed to a new stock arrangement that gives him additional shares to offset the billions he could lose, a sum reaching as high as $12.5 billion.

Other wealthy residents take a different view. Nvidia chief Jensen Huang told CBS, "I don't mind paying taxes. The more you make, the more taxes you pay. I'm okay with that." DoorDash cofounder Andy Fang called the measure "stupid".

California is not acting alone. Washington state voters are weighing a "millionaires tax" of 9.9% on annual income above $1 million. Across Europe, where such levies were once common, only Spain, Norway and Switzerland retain them, said Dr Kristian Niemietz of the Institute of Economic Affairs, who describes such levies as "more trouble than they are worth".

Inequality in the US is near its highest point in more than three decades, with the top 1% of households holding nearly 32% of wealth in the third quarter of 2025. Some 72% of Californians say the distance between rich and poor is widening, and a similar share says state government should do more, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. Trebbi said the measure is driven by an "anti-elite, anti-system sentiment" and is "really not about Prop 40" but about trying to "re-balance the scale a little bit".