Democrats favored to take House as Trump tariffs and Iran war fuel voter anger
Polls show 38% of Americans say their finances have worsened, while historical data indicates unpopular presidents face steep midterm losses.
By Tyler Khalil ·
President Donald Trump faces a difficult midterm election cycle as his administration’s economic choices collide with rising consumer prices. The President was elected in 2024 with a mandate to lower costs, yet approval ratings have hit record lows. Voters are blaming the administration for inflation that has persisted since Trump took his second oath of office in January 2025. A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that 38% of respondents said their economic situations have worsened, while only 15% reported financial improvement. Another 44% said their finances have remained stable.
The economic divide has widened as stock portfolios dominated by artificial intelligence companies have driven wealth for the affluent. Meanwhile, middle-income Americans are grappling with higher interest rates that make housing and car purchases more difficult. This strain is compounded by the costs of the war with Iran and the administration’s tariff policies. These factors have directly increased prices on goods and energy, eroding the purchasing power of regular households. The combination of economic pressure and political anger is shaping the upcoming election landscape.
Historical precedent suggests the President’s party will lose ground. Since World War II, the party in power has gained House seats in only two midterm elections. When a President’s approval rating falls below 50%, as Trump’s currently is, the ruling party loses an average of 35 seats. If approval ratings are above 50%, the average loss is 15 seats. Trump has acknowledged this historical trend during campaign events. Democrats have capitalized on this environment, overperforming in special elections and winning the 2025 off-year contests. The unpopular Iran war and subsequent gas price spikes have further disadvantaged Republicans.
Democrats are favored to win control of the House and are positioned to challenge for the Senate. However, the scale of their gains remains uncertain due to structural shifts. The Cook Political Report identifies approximately 30 fewer competitive districts this year compared to 2018. Mid-decade redistricting has also provided Republicans with an estimated eight-seat advantage. An NPR analysis indicates that Republican-led state legislatures successfully adjusted maps to favor their party. These changes may limit Democratic gains, although high turnout among Latino voters in South Texas could narrow the margin.
The Democratic base shows signs of restlessness, yet certain groups are highly engaged. Self-identified democratic socialists are actively participating in the midterms and strongly disapprove of Trump’s performance. In the latest poll, 44% of respondents described their vote as a choice against Trump, while 21% viewed it as a vote for him. This dynamic sets the stage for internal debates within the left ahead of the 2028 presidential primaries. Candidates seeking a national profile are expected to announce their intentions as early as January or February.
Republican turnout in red states will be a critical factor. Trump has campaigned in these areas to mobilize his base. Without high GOP participation, a small Democratic gain in the Senate could expand to a larger majority. Conversely, a Republican win in the House would be a major polling error. The outcome may not be clear on election night, as close races in key Senate districts could take days or weeks to resolve. This delay may create space for disputes over the results, a pattern Trump has followed after previous elections that did not go in his favor.
A quarter of Republicans in the latest poll said their candidate likely should not accept the results if the race is close. Most voters across party lines believe their states will conduct fair elections and that candidates should accept the outcome. Despite these expectations, the political climate remains tense. Trump’s presence has become a double-edged sword for his party. While essential for mobilizing the base, his popularity has declined among swing voters and some of his 2024 supporters. The coming weeks will test the resilience of the Republican coalition against economic dissatisfaction and the historical weight of midterm elections.
