Twelve to fifteen seats decide Israel's fate

Palestinian citizens of Israel are projected to win between 12 and 15 seats in next week's election, a margin that could determine the composition of the next government. This demographic accounts for roughly 20 percent of the national population. Current polling indicates that Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition will lose its majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Simultaneously, the Jewish Israeli opposition bloc is also forecast to fall short of the 61 seats required to form a government.

The 12 to 15 seats are expected to be split between two groups. The first is the Islamist Ra'am party. The second is the Joint List, an alliance of three smaller parties that includes Ta'al. Because both major camps appear unable to reach the governing threshold on their own, the vote of this community may prove decisive in selecting the next prime minister.

Ahmad Tibi, who heads Ta'al and has served in the Knesset for more than two decades, emphasized the necessity of high participation. "We are determined to do everything in order to bring this government down. And high turnout among the Arab community is one important tool in achieving this goal," Tibi said. His statement was made in the context of a campaign effort to mobilize voters in areas like Kfar Qasim, where candidates have gathered with constituents over knafeh pastries and cardamom coffee.

Political dynamics in Israel have historically complicated alliances with Palestinian politicians. Most of the Jewish Israeli opposition has ruled out a coalition with Arab partners. Netanyahu and his allies have worked to make such alliances politically toxic, using campaign slogans such as "It's [either] the right or Palestine" or "Bibi or Tibi." Despite this rhetoric, precedents exist. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a historic coalition with Naftali Bennett, who is now part of the opposition bloc. Netanyahu himself once opened coalition talks with Abbas.

Prospective voters recognize the mathematical reality of the situation. Mohammed, a manager at a hi-tech company with a mixed Jewish and Arab staff, expects the opposition to change its position once results are in. "At the end of the day, everything is mathematics, right? One plus one is two," he said. He is currently urging friends of all backgrounds to cast their ballots.

For Palestinian politicians, the choice remains difficult. None of the opposition parties call for a two-state solution. Most strongly oppose a Palestinian state and back the settlement movement in the occupied West Bank. Tibi described the decision as a choice between "bad and worse." He framed the election as a contest between the bloc led by Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir, and the opposition bloc.

Fear is a central motive for many voters in this community. The death and destruction in Gaza, militant violence, and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank have deepened worries about another four years of far-right ministers. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, stated that the biggest motivation is fear. He noted that voters understand the danger if "these criminals come back to rule again."

Turnout has historically been depressed by distrust of a system seen as stacked against Palestinians. Last month, Israel's supreme court effectively forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article about the 7 October Hamas-led attacks. This ruling was widely criticized for applying different free speech standards to Jewish and Palestinian citizens. In contrast, a motion to disqualify national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over racist language, including calls for ethnic cleansing, was not upheld. Some Palestinians, such as Haaretz journalist Nagham Zbeedat, abstain on principle, refusing to legitimize a system that treats their rights as favors.

Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group stated that a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to speed up policies of ethnic cleansing and annexation. He described the vote as largely about mitigation, noting that Palestinians can see the difference between a right-wing and a far-right government. The election falls two days before Kfar Qasim marks the 1956 massacre, in which border police killed 49 men, women, and children who had broken a curfew they did not know about.