Serbia Faces Uncertain Vote as Audit Finds Half-Million Incomplete Voter Records

Serbia enters its final pre-election week with a voter register that contains substantial data gaps, raising questions about the accuracy of the upcoming parliamentary vote. The election is scheduled for October 25, 2026, and will determine whether Aleksandar Vucic returns to the role of prime minister after serving in that capacity from 2014 to 2017. Vucic, who has led Serbian politics for fourteen years, stepped down as president in late September to run for the top executive position.

The primary challenge to Vucic’s rule comes from a student-led opposition movement that emerged from nationwide protests. This group does not have formal party leaders, and its candidate list is composed largely of nonpartisan figures, including university professors. The list is headed by cardiologist Ilija Srdanovic, although the movement has stated that his placement at the top does not guarantee him the premiership if the group wins the election. Current polling indicates a deeply divided electorate, with support split between the ruling coalition and the student movement.

Recent investigations have intensified scrutiny over the integrity of the electoral process. RFE/RL’s Balkan Service identified approximately 500,000 registered voters who lack complete address information in the official records. These files often miss specific street names or house numbers. The review also found hundreds of voters listed at public facilities, such as social welfare centers, or at residential addresses that could not logically accommodate that many individuals. These findings echo concerns from the 2023 election, when international observers reported irregularities, including the transportation of voters from neighboring Bosnia-Hercegovina and instances of voter intimidation.

The timing of the vote is politically sensitive. It occurs just days before the second anniversary of the Novi Sad tragedy, in which sixteen people died when a renovated railway station canopy collapsed on November 1, 2024. That disaster triggered widespread protests fueled by allegations of corruption at the construction site, a project led by Chinese businesses. The government denied wrongdoing, but police met the demonstrations with force and arrests. A severe incident occurred on March 15, 2025, when authorities allegedly used an unlawful sonic weapon against peaceful demonstrators. Following another student protest in June, Vucic announced his resignation and the scheduling of these early elections.

Disagreement persists over whether the government has addressed previous flaws. The Serbian government claims it implemented all recommendations from the OSCE’s observation mission after the 2023 vote. However, an interim report by the OSCE contradicted this assertion. The organization has deployed 300 observers to Serbia for the current cycle. RFE/RL investigations also noted that the number of eligible voters in Bosnia and Kosovo increased ahead of the vote. These regions are considered key sources of support for Vucic’s Progressive Party among ethnic Serbs. Four employees of Serbia-funded institutions in Kosovo told RFE/RL that they faced pressure to vote for the ruling party, a practice also documented in several Serbian municipalities.

Allegations of illegal surveillance further complicate the political climate. A statement from the US Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee on October 21 cited reports of illegal monitoring of opposition members and attempts to undermine election observation missions. Research by the Serbian nonprofit SHARE and Toronto University researchers alleged that at least sixteen cases of the Pegasus surveillance software were used in 2026. Pegasus is illegal in Serbia. While the opposition blames the authorities for the spying, government officials have denied targeting their political rivals.

International dynamics play a visible role in the campaign. Vladimir Bilcik, a former European Parliament rapporteur for Serbia, described the upcoming vote as the first in over a decade with a genuinely uncertain outcome. Some US lawmakers have warned that Moscow may play an active role in the election. The European Parliament has raised concerns about Russian influence operations. Republican Congressman Joe Wilson stated that Russia is deploying resources to monitor and disrupt Serbian citizens and the student movement. Russian President Vladimir Putin has personally expressed support for Vucic ahead of the election.

Policy positions have remained largely similar between the two sides. Vucic pledged to maintain his foreign policy course, including his refusal to follow EU calls for sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The student movement has focused primarily on fighting corruption, though it has also opposed sanctions and reiterated support for Belgrade’s stance of not recognizing Kosovo’s independence. Serbia’s progress in EU integration has stalled, with no new accession chapter opened since late 2021. Democratic backsliding, unresolved relations with Kosovo, and the refusal to sanction Russia are cited as the main reasons for this impasse.