Half of Europe's Heat Deaths Driven by Warming
A new analysis attributes 32,619 of 50,391 summer deaths across 854 cities to fossil fuel emissions.
By Jason Kovalenko ·
Extreme temperatures across Europe this summer resulted in the deaths of 50,391 people, with researchers attributing nearly two-thirds of those fatalities to human-caused climate change. The findings, set to appear in Nature Health, mark a sharp increase from the previous record set in 2022.
The study analyzed heat-related mortality across 854 European cities during June, July, and August. Of the total 50,391 deaths, 32,619 were linked specifically to the additional heat generated by burning coal, oil, and gas. This summer's toll was 71 percent higher than the 29,480 deaths recorded in 2022, the last time a similar spike was documented.
The highest death tolls occurred in Italy, France, Spain, and Germany. The period between June 17 and July 1 proved particularly lethal, accounting for about one-third of all heat-related deaths as temperatures ran 5.3 degrees Celsius above normal. More than half of the victims were aged 85 or older, though the heat also claimed the lives of more than 800 individuals between the ages of 20 and 44.
Clair Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and the study's lead author, noted that some cities experienced temperatures 12 degrees Celsius above normal. She explained that infrastructure in much of Western and Northern Europe was not built to withstand these conditions. Barnes stated that the extra warming can shift temperatures from uncomfortable to dangerous and potentially deadly.
Europe is currently 2.5 degrees Celsius hotter than pre-industrial levels and remains the fastest-warming continent. The research team used computer simulations to model a world without climate change to isolate the impact of global warming. They found that the share of heat deaths attributable to warming has climbed from about 45 percent in the early 2000s to 65 percent today.
Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, a biostatistician at Imperial College London and co-author, emphasized that the current figures likely underestimate the true toll. The analysis excluded a deadly heat wave in May and covered only the 854 cities, which hold approximately 40 percent of Europe's population. The team validated their statistical models against government data, finding that their estimate of 2,700 excess deaths for the May and June heat waves in Britain closely matched the 2,800 reported by the UK's health statistics agency.
Outside experts supported the methodology and urged for a dual approach to mitigation. Dr. Howard Frumkin, former director of the National Center for Environmental Health, observed that rising temperatures and improved attribution tools are producing more reliable counts. Dr. Courtney Howard, president-elect of the Canadian Medical Association, called for investment in early-warning systems and equitable access to cooling. Dr. Jonathan Patz of the University of Wisconsin-Madison stressed the need to address fossil fuel burning to stop the source of the warming.
