Patriots favored to beat Dolphins in Week 8 showdown
Betting markets price New England as a 75% favorite, though Miami has found a new offensive spark in its last two games.
By Tyler Khalil ·
New England leads Miami by a 75 to 25 margin in betting markets for their upcoming game. That figure represents the probability of a Patriots victory in the AFC East clash scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday.
The game marks a turning point for both teams after disparate starts to the season. The Patriots are 4-3, while the Dolphins sit at 1-5. New England has struggled early but has found consistency in recent weeks.
Drake Maye has guided the Patriots to a 3-1 record since their 1-2 start. The team beat the Buffalo Bills in their only meeting this season, keeping New England within 1.5 games of the division leader. The Patriots’ three-game win streak ended last week with a loss to the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football.
Miami has shown improvement on the offensive side. The Dolphins lost their first four games, scoring 13 or fewer points in each contest. Since then, they have scored 24 and 28 points. Malik Willis has recorded five total touchdowns over the last two weeks. The Dolphins defeated the New York Jets 28-25 in the Meadowlands last week, ending their winless streak.
Betting markets also suggest a close contest is possible despite the odds. The probability of the Patriots winning by more than 6.5 points is 52%, while the chance of a closer game or a Miami victory is 48%. New England has covered this spread in three of its four wins this season. The team has scored 29, 45, 26, and 24 points in its last four games.
Total points projections indicate a high-scoring affair. Markets place the odds of the game exceeding 43.5 points at 50%. New England’s last four games all resulted in more than 43.5 points. Miami’s last two games also cleared that threshold. SportsLine simulations, which model the game 10,000 times, show the teams scoring at least 44 combined points in more than 60% of outcomes.
Weather in South Florida could impact gameplay. The forecast calls for potentially stormy conditions at kickoff. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates prediction markets, which allow users to trade on the outcomes of sports events.
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