Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr faces Miami to secure playoff spot

The College Football Playoff selection committee placed Notre Dame at No. 11 in its rankings released on Tuesday. The Fighting Irish hold a 10-2 record with a single loss to No. 9 BYU. Their resume lacks the quality victories typically required for a secure postseason spot. Projected as the final team in the 12-team field, any further loss will likely eliminate them from contention. The team plays the No. 1 Miami Hurricanes on Saturday.

Quarterback CJ Carr enters the game with an 82.7 adjusted Quarterback Rating, the eighth highest in the nation. He has completed 67% of his passes for the season. His touchdown-to-interception ratio stands at 18 to 1. These metrics place him among the most efficient passers in college football. However, his performance against ranked opponents has drawn scrutiny.

Carr completed only 55% of his 49 attempts in the loss to BYU. That was his career low for completion percentage and his highest volume of attempts. He managed just 7 of 17 passes during a stretch in the second and third quarters. BYU built a double-digit lead in Provo during that span. The Cougars field the second-best passing defense in the country, limiting opponents to 5.5 yards per attempt.

Data shows a clear drop in Carr's efficiency against ranked teams. He completes 61% of his passes for 6.6 yards per attempt against ranked opponents. Against unranked teams, those figures rise to 69% completion and 10.0 yards per attempt. His average pass attempts also increase from 23.1 to 33 when facing ranked defenses. This shift suggests the offense relies more heavily on the pass when the run game stalls.

The BYU game revealed other offensive gaps. Carr completed only 30% of passes traveling more than 10 yards downfield. BYU dual-threat quarterback Bear Bachmeier outperformed him. Notre Dame receivers struggled to create separation against the Cougars' defensive backs. These issues have fueled debate regarding Carr's readiness for elite competition.

Miami presents a mixed profile for the passing attack. The Hurricanes rank No. 1 nationally in rushing defense. Their secondary, however, ranks No. 122 in passing defense, allowing 251.9 yards per game. The pass rush has regressed compared to last season, leaving a young defensive backfield exposed. Miami allows 7.1 yards per attempt, a middling figure partly driven by opponents throwing more often to counter the elite run defense.

Recent results underscore Miami's vulnerabilities in the air. North Carolina's Billy Edwards Jr. completed 82% of his passes for 341 yards and four touchdowns last week. Florida State recorded 298 passing yards and four touchdowns in a double-overtime loss. Pittsburgh quarterbacks Holden Geriner and Corey Dailey combined for 334 yards and two touchdowns. Statistically, this is one of the weakest passing defenses Carr has faced.

Carr is currently the No. 10 overall prospect in the CBS Sports NFL Draft Rankings. A strong performance against Miami could make him the first Notre Dame quarterback selected in the first round since Brady Quinn in 2007. He would also become the first top-10 pick at the position since Rick Mirer in 1993. Carr went 0-2 against College Football Playoff teams last season and 0-1 against projected playoff participant BYU this year.

The outcome of Saturday's game will determine the trajectory of Notre Dame's season. A win keeps the team in the final projected spot in the College Football Playoff. A loss likely ends their postseason hopes. Carr's performance will also influence his standing in the upcoming NFL draft.